Prospect Profile: Patrick Laird

PATRICK LAIRD -- RB, CALIFORNIA

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

College walk-on, wide receiver convert, and former California Golden Bear Patrick Laird is built like a prototypical satellite back. At 5'11 1/2 and 205 pounds, the 2.87 pounds per inch that Laird carries on his frame aligns his body type with those of guys like Theo Riddick, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, and Reggie Bush, all successful NFL receiving backs in that 2.85-2.90 pounds per inch range. It's rare for a player with such a frame to receive a heavy workload on the ground (McCaffrey and Darren McFadden are the only players in that height-weight ratio range in our database to average at least 10 carries per game for their NFL careers, while Bush and Steve Slaton are close at 9.6 and 9.8 carries per game, respectively), but Laird is well suited to a role as a receiving threat out of the backfield. 

All I want out of a RB prospect is one upper-percentile, meal-ticket athletic trait that shows they can win on an NFL field. Maurice Jones-Drew buoyed an otherwise average athletic profile with 4.39 speed, Alvin Kamara props up unspectacular long speed and lateral agility with a 94th-percentile Burst Score (according to playerprofiler.com), and like Le'Veon Bell, Patrick Laird supplements simply adequate speed and explosiveness with a sub-11.00 Agility Score, with Laird's 10.80 ranking in the 98th-percentile. It's incredibly unlikely that Laird is on the level of those guys as an NFL player (projecting anyone for that kind of success is a losing proposition), but his measurably elite lateral agility opens up a path to his becoming an effective player at the professional level. 

Production Profile

As of this writing, Patrick Laird is not in Peter Howard's (@pahowdy) market share database that I typically use to look at breakout ages of RB prospects, but a quick bit of my own math tells me that he does well compared to age-adjusted rushing yards market share thresholds for success (based on RBs with at least one RB2-quality fantasy season on their NFL resumé) found in Zeno Muscarella's market share tool. He's an older prospect as a soon-to-be 24-year old, but college RBs who play at age 22 and 23 and then go on to be successful NFL RBs account for at least 50% of their teams' total rushing yards, and in his age 22 and 23 seasons (his two seasons as a starter), Laird produced 74.8% and 46.9%, respectively, of Cal's rushing yardage output. 

Laird's overall dominance of the Golden Bear offense is also a plus on his production profile. He leaves Cal coming off of two seasons in which he produced at least 60th-percentile Dominator Ratings while averaging 87 rushing yards per game. It's his production as a receiver that really makes Laird an intriguing prospect, though. Totaling 96 receptions in his final two seasons, Laird's production-adjusted receiving involvement resulted in Satellite Scores of 43.6 in 2017 and 50.8 in 2018, both at least 81st-percentile marks. These figures put Laird in good company, as quality NFL pass-catching backs like Duke Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Elijah McGuire, and Chris Thompson all entered the league with Satellite Scores in the 40.0-50.0 range. As an upper-percentile target hog and good producer in a Power Five conference, it's very possible that Patrick Laird is the best backfield receiving threat on whatever team he ends up with later this month. 

Rushing Efficiency

Patrick Laird was not an efficient runner in 2018 by nearly any measure. He hardly ever reached the second level of defenses, ripping off chunk runs (10+ yards) and breakaway runs (20+) at lower rates than the rest of his Cal teammates, and wasn't picking up consistent yards even when big plays are removed from the equation, averaging 3.54 True YPC (which limits long runs to a maximum of 10 yards). 

Laird's performance in these metrics was stunningly bad, but when I looked into his 2017 season to see if it was more of the same, what I found was an almost completely different player. His True YPC was almost three-quarters of a yard higher at 4.26, and while I think his 4.61 speed means his 2.49% Breakaway Rate Over Team from 2017 can't be replicated in the NFL, he also picked up chunk gains at a 10.61% higher rate than his Cal teammates, a mark that would be just below Darrell Henderson's ridiculous 10.99% CROT atop the 2019 class. 

Dismissing Laird's 2018 efficiency to hone in on him as the guy who smashed the year before would be foolish. His 2017 numbers are so good that I wanted to find something that indicates he really is that guy and not the 2018 guy. I looked into advanced offensive line stats, searched for injury reports, poured into team offensive efficiency data to uncover anything that could explain away such a massive dip in Laird's performance. I found nothing. He is the guy who wrecked the Pac-12 in 2017, but he's also the guy who slogged his way through another nearly 1,000 yard campaign in 2018. 

The silver lining for Laird, as well as the reason I don't care as much about his rushing efficiency numbers as I would for a guy like Benny Snell, is that he doesn't profile as a high-volume runner in the NFL anyway. He's a prototypical satellite back who can pick up yards in the flats and in the screen game and dominate linebackers in 1-on-1 matchups out of the backfield. I'm not worried that Laird isn't going to be able to consistently churn out positive yardage on the ground as a pro, because I don't think he'll ever be asked to do that. Find him mismatches and get him in space and he can be a quality player. 

Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Outside of Devine Ozigbo and Miles Sanders, Patrick Laird is a strong match (85% or better) to more successful NFL backs than any player in this draft class: 

Physically, Laird is a close comp to fellow former Pac-12 standout Christian McCaffrey, and he's a good Athletic match to other fantasy productive runners Zac Stacy, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Knowshon Moreno. His closest 3-Down Profile comps illustrate the kind of role Laird can expect in the NFL: the five players on that list have had targets make up an average of 40.3% of their total career opportunities (targets + carries), a portion well above the 23.2% database average. Laird is as pure a satellite back as they come. 

Overall, Patrick Laird is one of my personal favorite prospects in this RB class. He offers quality athleticism and excellent pass-catching ability, and players like Giovani Bernard, DeMarco Murray, and Saquon Barkley are among his closest Production matches. Other than a late breakout and questionable ability as a pure runner, Laird has about as complete a profile for a satellite back as you could hope for. His top 3 Path to Success matches (a comparison that limits the player pool to just guys who've posted at least one RB2-quality fantasy season) are the same players as his top 3 matches overall. He bears such strong similarities to numerous successful NFL players that I'd be shocked if Patrick Laird got an opportunity in the NFL and didn't produce with it. I am worried that, as a guy who received no scholarship offers coming out of high school and had to walk on at Cal and then work through three seasons and two position changes before he got his shot, Laird is again being overlooked during this pre-Draft process. Going undrafted is a real possibility for him, and, as with any player, that would be a near knockout blow to his prospects of ever contributing on a regular season NFL roster, let alone a fantasy team. On pure ability, I believe Laird can challenge James Williams for the title of best satellite back in this class. Assuming an NFL team takes a shot on him either as a late-round pick or an undrafted free agent, I'm doing the same in dynasty. Christian McCaffrey-lite will always have a spot on my taxi squad. 

Thanks so much for reading! If you enjoy the content, please consider subscribing at the top of the page, and find me on Twitter @noahmoreparties.