2020 Rookie RB Rankings

2020 Rookie RB Rankings

Most of my recent work has been done over at breakoutfinder.com, where I've been doing analysis on rookie running back prospects as well as delving into more devy stuff. I've been asked by several people on Twitter for my pre-draft rookie rankings, and multiple factors contributed to my not wanting to publish those at Breakout Finder; first, the fantasy "market" is oversaturated with rankings content, second, given that I am choosing to release rankings anyway, I decided to do so too late to get them published over there in time before the NFL Draft starts given the content schedule. So, it makes more sense to just throw together an article here on my personal blog. I have published an article on the rushing efficiency numbers of this rookie class that's good for more context here (my process has changed a bit since, so composite rushing efficiency scores may be slightly different now).

Anyway, this will basically be a list of 2020 rookie running backs, ranked within tiers and with short comments accompanied by the composite scores from my prospect model that form the basis of a lot of my takes. At this point, given that we don't know landing spots or draft capital, these are essentially talent-based rankings (so, for example, I don't yet care that AJ Dillon is likely to get taken much earlier than James Robinson in the Draft).

Tier 1: Can't Miss

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

Jonathan Taylor is awesome. He's big at 5'10, 226, he's fast and explosive, he's probably the best pure runner in the class, and he showed improvement in the passing game in 2019 (he will likely never be more than a Zeke Elliott / Leonard Fournette-type checkdown option in that area, but prior to last season he looked like a Derrick Henry-level non-receiver). A legitimate argument could be made that Taylor is the best college running back of all time, and he's similarly one of the best running back prospects we've ever seen. My model has him as the 3rd-best prospect since 2007, behind only Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey. I am unconcerned about a heavy workload and some high fumble totals. Taylor is a smash pick at 1.01 in rookie drafts and should probably be a first round pick in dynasty startups as he will immediately be one of the best few running backs in the NFL as a rookie. I did a full write-up on Taylor here.

Tier 2: RB1-Quality Talents

2. D'Andre Swift, Georgia

D'Andre Swift, like Sony Michel and Nick Chubb before him, shared time in the backfield with other talented players at Georgia, but the work he did on the field might be the most impressive of any back in this class. He has requisite size at 5'8, 212, he comes in above the 60th percentile in each rushing efficiency metric I look at, and he's one of the few most dynamic receivers among 2020 backs (along with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and wide receiver convert Antonio Gibson). His quality athleticism (4.48 in the forty, 62nd-percentile Burst Score) means he should have no problem converting his per-touch efficiency in college to the NFL stage. There's a strong possibility he is the first back taken in the Draft, and depending on landing spot (like if he ends up with the Chiefs), I could be convinced to take him over Taylor in rookie drafts, especially given the receiving upside he provides that Taylor does not. 

3. JK Dobbins, Ohio State

It's unfortunate that JK Dobbins didn't choose to participate in athletic testing at the Combine (and then that a global pandemic removed his opportunity to test at a pro day), because by all accounts, the dude is a special athlete. An Athleticism Score input of 80 would have his Prospect Score jump up to 67.6, but he checks every other box anyway, so I have no problem making some assumptions about the kind of mover he is. He was a quality runner and receiver at Ohio State, and his 18-year old breakout and eventual 28.4% Dominator Rating at a legitimate National Championship-contending program means Dobbins boasts a rare full-package production profile. I'm slightly less convinced of his on-field ability than I am for other three-down backs like Swift and Edwards-Helaire, but lagging behind them a bit just means Dobbins is good instead of great. He measured in a little light at the Combine at just 209 on a 5'9 frame, but assuming a team views him as capable of handling heavy touches, I don't think there's any reason to think he can't (he probably plays heavier than 209 anyway). Dobbins should be taken before any wide receiver in rookie drafts.

4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of the most controversial players in this year's class (sort of the running back version of Henry Ruggs, I guess), mostly due to his size at 5'7, 207, his 4.6 forty, and his year-3 breakout after backing up the very JAGy Nick Brossette as a sophomore. I recognize that all of those things are holes in the CEH profile, but I believe (as does my model) that he is a good prospect in spite of them. 

Most NFL workhorses are much bigger than Edwards-Helaire is, but there is precedent for a guy his size being given a heavy workload (Maurice Jones-Drew, Devonta Freeman, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook, and Aaron Jones are all in the same body type ballpark). Draft capital will likely be an important indicator of whether a team believes CEH can be one of those guys, so I'll be very interested in how high he goes in the Draft. I don't personally believe he will have any problem "handling" a lot of touches in the event he gets them. 

I like CEH because he was awesome on the field during his college career. He outperformed a very talented running back group to the tune of 1.15 yards per carry+, and he might be the best receiver in the class. I also believe his athleticism is not an issue, as a barely below-average forty time is countered by a Burst Score that approaches the 90th percentile. I touched on Edwards-Helaire's profile in this article, drawing parallels between his game and that of Alvin Kamara. Assuming requisite draft capital (2nd round will do) and a solid landing spot, I would happily take CEH in the early-middle first round of dynasty rookie drafts, but you can probably snag him at the 1.08 or later.  

5. Cam Akers, Florida State

Cam Akers is an interesting data-based evaluation given the absolutely horrendous offensive line he played behind for his entire career at FSU (a 2nd-percentile group according to Football Outsiders metrics I like to look at). Some smart tape evaluators insist that Akers is a great runner who often made something out of nothing, and I'm inclined to believe them given that he outperformed his teammates in both yards per carry and Chunk Rate (rate of 10+ yard runs). His labeling as great in that area is just a bit more of a projection for me than it is for other guys, so I've put Akers at the end of this tier of talented backs. 

As a producer, receiver, and athlete, though, I have no questions about Akers. He was dominant from a young age, he caught nearly 70 balls in his career with decent efficiency given the circumstances, and the physical profile he brought to the Combine was very Marshawn Lynch-ian. Lynch, along with Ezekiel Elliott and Marlon Mack, is one of Akers' four closest overall comps according to my model, so the RB1 upside is apparent. The other player in that cohort is Bishop Sankey, and the bust potential that comp suggests is why I have Akers at the tail end of this tier. Pending fallout from landing spot and draft capital, I'm happy taking Akers as early as the 1.04 in single-QB rookie drafts. 

Tier 3: Situationally-Dependent Fantasy Relevance

6. Antonio Gibson, Memphis

Whatever people are referring to when they talk about "upside," Antonio Gibson has it. He has workhorse size at 6', 228, he runs a 4.39 forty, he is the most efficient college runner in my entire running back prospect database (by two of the five metrics I look at), and he has the receiving chops of a wide receiver. He emphatically checks quite literally every box except for the very large box labeled "played running back in college." Because of that inexperience with the position, his efficiency could very possibly be fool's gold, but it's well worth a mid-late second round rookie pick to find out whether Gibson is Ty Montgomery or David Johnson. 

7. Eno Benjamin, Arizona State

I'm working on an Eno Benjamin article for Breakout Finder right now, but I'll give a quick rundown here. He's sort of Duke Johnson or Giovani Bernard-lite to me, almost in every way. Like those guys, he's on the small side at 5'9, 207, but he's a quality (though not incredibly fast) athlete with a solid college resume as both a runner and receiver. He outperformed his teammates in yards per carry and Chunk Rate, but he lost yards semi-frequently (10.80% of the time, a 23rd-percentile Loss Rate) and didn't create a ton of big plays (his 24.32% Breakaway Conversion Rate is in the 22nd percentile). As a pass-catcher, he was prolific with 82 career receptions, but only boasts adequate efficiency. He was a good producer at a Power 5 program as a 19-year old breakout with a 36.1% Dominator Rating. 

I believe Benjamin can be a three-down back in the NFL, but I doubt a team selects him with that role in mind. He's not quite as dynamic as Gio or Duke, and their respective career arcs (short term lead-back who straddles the RB2/RB1 line, and efficient second banana who never really gets a shot) might represent his realistic range of outcomes. 

8. Zack Moss, Utah

Zack Moss often gets the David Montgomery comp, and I think it's pretty apt. He's a workhorse-sized guy who was a productive, tackle-breaking machine at a third tier college program, and he's a decent receiver with subpar athleticism. Sounds like Montgomery to me. I don't believe Moss is a special talent, but I don't think he's bad either; he's probably best suited to an Alexander Mattison-type role as a do-it-all backup, but the NFL might take a liking to his bruising style and hand him a starting job. He's likely a high-end RB2 type in that case, but I don't believe his talent is great enough to give him much staying power regardless (think Kerryon Johnson in that regard). I did a short thread on Twitter with my thoughts on Montgomery here. 

9. James Robinson, Illinois State

James Robinson is the small school upside play in this rookie class. He has workhorse size at 5'9, 219, he was dominant at the non-FBS level with a 19-year old breakout and a 48.5% Dominator Rating, and he outpaced his teammates on the ground by a full yard per carry. He's not fast with just a 4.64 showing in the forty, but he boasts 92nd-percentile explosiveness and 69th-percentile lateral agility. He was a decent-but-not-incredible receiver in college as well, averaging 14.9 yards per reception on an 8.7% target share that ranks in the 48th percentile. I'm not sure Robinson even gets drafted, but in the event he does latch on with a team, he is the Chase Edmonds, Tim Hightower, Jerick McKinnon-type sleeper you need to stash on your taxi squad. 

10. AJ Dillon, Boston College

AJ Dillon is big, fast, and jumps very high, but I'm not sure he's all that good at football. He was a stud from a young age at BC, breaking out as a 19-year old freshman and eventually posting a 35.5% Dominator Rating, but he doesn't catch passes and he wasn't incredibly efficient as a runner. He was decent in that area, especially as a breakaway threat (with a Breakaway Conversion Rate that ranks in the 68th percentile), but my favorite efficiency metric to look at is Chunk Rate, where Dillon underperformed his teammates. 

His smoothness as a pass-catcher might exceed the lowly 21 receptions on his resume, as his per-target efficiency is impressive (93rd-percentile yards per target), but I need to see more before I'm convinced he can play on third downs. 

Dillon has a basement floor and an '07 LenDale White ceiling. 

Tier 4: JAGs with Three-Down Potential, Role Players

As you'll notice from the drop-off in Prospect Scores, there's a chasm between Tier 3 and Tier 4. Draft capital could still vault some Tier 4 guys into a dynasty-valuation position that exceeds that of some Tier 3 guys (Darrynton Evans getting the day two capital that's been rumored would see him jump a 5th round AJ Dillon and an undrafted James Robinson from a you-should-select-these-guys-in-this-order point of view, for example). My rankings here are also done with much less conviction; if you think Joshua Kelley is better than Ke'Shawn Vaughn, I wouldn't argue with you. 

11. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt

Ke'Shawn Vaughn is one of the few age-18 breakouts in this rookie class, and, along with Jonathan Taylor, is one of only two guys who are age-18 breakouts who also posted Dominator Ratings above the 40% mark. Vaughn also checks the size box at 5'9 and 214 pounds, and his on-field resume is solid as well. His performances in YPC+ and Chunk Rate+ both rank in at least the 60th percentile, and his Breakaway Conversion Rate of 36.9% is a 77th-percentile mark. His 4.51 time in the forty suggests he could continue that open field success at the next level. As a receiver, Vaughn earned a 10% target share and displayed decent efficiency on his 66 career receptions. 

The downsides to the Vaughn profile are a lack of explosiveness, an inconsistent performance on the ground (True YPC and Loss Rate marks that rank in the 31st and 15th percentiles, respectively), and lack of a truly top-end trait in any area. He's fine. 

12. Joshua Kelley, UCLA

Joshua Kelley seems to be a favorite of NFL scouts because of his character and personality, which certainly matters in determining his odds of success, but I have no way of accounting for that in a data-based talent evaluation model. Just by the numbers, he's pretty JAGy. 

He broke out as a near 21-year old, but was good once he got going, with a 33.4% Dominator Rating and decent efficiency marks as a rusher. He was surprisingly athletic at the Combine, with upper percentile performances in the forty (4.49) and the agility drills (69th-percentile Agility Score of 11.23). He has decent size at 5'10, 212, and showed some ability as a pass-catcher with 38 receptions in just two seasons, but it's unlikely he's a guy that demands targets at the NFL level. He is also just fine. 

13. La'Mical Perine, Florida

La'Mical Perine never separated himself in a solid running back room at Florida, but at 5'11, 216 and with an 11.8% Target Share and 72 career receptions under his belt, he has intriguing every-down ability. He is a pedestrian athlete and runner, though, so his profile has some shades of TJ Yeldon to it. 

14. Rico Dowdle, South Carolina

Rico Dowdle wasn't incredibly productive at South Carolina but he did burst onto the scene as an 18-year old true freshman, which is worth something. He's not special as a runner or receiver, but he at least boasts decent size at 5'11, 213 to go along with explosive athleticism in the form of a 4.54 forty and a 128.1 Burst Score that ranks in the 88th percentile. Meh. 

15. Darrynton Evans, Appalachian State

Darryonton Evans was a good player at a decent mid-major program in App. State, and his dynamic athletic traits (he runs a 4.41 and posted an 82nd-percentile Burst Score) and big-play ability (his Breakaway Conversion Rate of 37.97% is an 80th-percentile mark) have made him a trendy sleeper among draft and dynasty Twitter heads. He wasn't otherwise efficient on the ground, though, and at just 203 pounds on a 5'10 frame, you need to be special in the passing game to demand a sizable role, something I don't think Evans is. His 8.2% Target Share is fine but not great, as are his 39 career receptions (in 39 career games) on just decent efficiency numbers. 

I did a short Twitter thread on Evans a few weeks ago, and my conclusions there are pretty consistent with my thoughts today. He's somewhere on the Travis Homer, Ronnie Hillman spectrum. 

16. Anthony McFarland, Maryland

None of Anthony McFarland's composite scores are very good, but he has decent size for a committee back at 5'8, 208, and his 4.44 speed coupled with a Chunk Rate+ of 7.26% that ranks in the 92nd percentile makes him interesting as a big play slasher. 

Tier 5: Some Positive Traits

17. Javon Leake, Maryland

Javon Leake runs a 4.65 and doesn't catch passes, but he was absurdly efficient at Maryland. He outperformed his teammates (a group that included McFarland) by 2.02 yards per carry and converted 59.26% of his chunk runs (10+ yards) into breakaway runs (20+ yards), the best mark in my database. He also has decent size at 6', 215. He could very easily fade into obscurity, but maybe he's some sort of slow-footed savant. 

18. JaMycal Hasty, Baylor

JaMycal Hasty was not an efficient college runner, but he is a quality athlete who caught 79 passes in 45 career games and has decent size for an NFL satellite back at 5'8, 205. 

19. LeVante Bellamy, Western Michigan

I believe LeVante Bellamy is better than JaMycal Hasty, but when you're as small as Bellamy is (5'9, 192), your chances at carving out a role on offense heavily depend on your ability as a receiver, and he's just not special in that area. He's a decent check-down option and a meh runner with 4.5 speed and elite burst (91st percentile). 

20. DeeJay Dallas, Miami

Despite checking zero boxes except for size (5'10, 217), DeeJay Dallas gets some credit for almost checking the rest of them. He is the full package of just-below-average-at-everything, but he's not a terrible player. 

21. Raymond Calais, UL-Lafayette

Raymond Calais is very small at 5'8, 188, and he wasn't productive in college, and he doesn't catch passes, but he runs a 4.42 and and was very efficient on the ground. Who knows. 

Tier 6: Semi-Exciting Small School Guys That Will Probably Never Get a Shot

22. Pete Guerriero, Monmouth

Pete Guerriero is small at 5'9 and 196 pounds, but he was productive at Monmouth (34.0% Dominator Rating, 19-year old breakout) while averaging 1.07 yards per carry more than his teammates and catching 69 passes, so there's some reason to think he's a good player. He's a track star that disappointed with a 4.52 forty time at his pro day; he probably needed to run in the 4.3s to get a shot in the NFL. 

23. Jonathan Ward, Central Michigan

Jonathan Ward was actually good at an FBS school, posting a 30.7% Dominator Rating after breaking out as a sophomore, but he didn't get a Combine invitation and is therefore likely not on the NFL's radar. He's a black box prospect as an athlete and lacks requisite size at just 195 pounds on a 5'11 frame, but he was decently efficient on the ground (he outperformed teammates in yards per carry and Chunk Rate) and very prolific through the air. He caught 98 balls in 42 games and posted a Target Share of 17.1% that ranks in the 96th percentile. I hope he gets a chance but I'm not holding my breath. 

Tier 7: Very Unlikely To Ever Be Fantasy Relevant

I'm not going to write up the guys in this group, and I'm going to sort them by Prospect Score. 

24. Michael Warren, Cincinnati

25. Sewo Olonilua, TCU

26. Benny LeMay, Charlotte

27. Salvon Ahmed, Washington

28. Jet Anderson, TCU

29. Patrick Taylor, Memphis

30. JJ Taylor, Arizona

31. Brian Herrien, Georgia

32. Tony Jones, Notre Dame

33. Scottie Phillips, Ole Miss

Follow me on Twitter at @noahmoreparties for more dynasty, devy, and player evaluation-related work.