The Vitruvian Podcast

2020 Rookie RB Rankings

2020 Rookie RB Rankings Most of my recent work has been done over at breakoutfinder.com , where I've been doing analysis on rookie running back prospects as well as delving into more devy stuff. I've been asked by several people on Twitter for my pre-draft rookie rankings, and multiple factors contributed to my not wanting to publish those at Breakout Finder; first, the fantasy "market" is oversaturated with rankings content, second, given that I am choosing to release rankings anyway, I decided to do so too late to get them published over there in time before the NFL Draft starts given the content schedule. So, it makes more sense to just throw together an article here on my personal blog. I have published an article on the rushing efficiency numbers of this rookie class that's good for more context here (my process has changed a bit since, so composite rushing efficiency scores may be slightly different now). Anyway, this will basically be a list of 20

My Comprehensive Take on Isaiah Spiller

This prospecting season, I've done more work on Isaiah Spiller than I have on any other single player, and I have probably dedicated as much thought to Spiller as I have to the rest of the running back class combined. It's both exciting and unsettling that my process has led to me a position that is near opposite of the conventional wisdom that has Spiller as a top-3 (and often top-1) running back in this class, and I've attempted to have conviction in my own process while also exercising openness and intellectual humility when considering arguments to the contrary of my evaluation. To this point, I've written two entire articles over at breakoutfinder.com just on Spiller, and I need not monopolize those airwaves with my continued beating of this dead horse. However, I've kept my eyes and ears open for pro-Spiller arguments because I want to explore the possibility that I'm wrong, and I want to publish my definitive take on the issue with all of those arguments

Meta-Analysis: Examining My Own Process vs. (and vis-à-vis) the NFL Draft

My RB evaluation model has changed and expanded substantially since I began doing this work a year ago. I've increased the amount of data points I reference in each evaluation, changed the calculation method for several metrics, revamped my player comparison model, and worked towards developing various score outputs in order to quantify the whole of each player's profile, rather than leaving final evaluations up to my own subjective interpretation of the data. Each RB in my database now has a Prospect Score, essentially a final number that the model spits out that rates a player relative to his peers on the overall quality of his profile. The Prospect Score doesn't tell you the percent likelihood that a player is drafted at X spot or in Y round, it doesn't tell you the likelihood that a player "succeeds" (however success might be defined) or posts Z amount of RB2 or better seasons. Instead, the Prospect Score is something like a Madden rating: it simply te

The Vitruvian Prospect

Search This Blog