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Showing posts from January, 2020

Meta-Analysis: Examining My Own Process vs. (and vis-à-vis) the NFL Draft

My RB evaluation model has changed and expanded substantially since I began doing this work a year ago. I've increased the amount of data points I reference in each evaluation, changed the calculation method for several metrics, revamped my player comparison model, and worked towards developing various score outputs in order to quantify the whole of each player's profile, rather than leaving final evaluations up to my own subjective interpretation of the data. Each RB in my database now has a Prospect Score, essentially a final number that the model spits out that rates a player relative to his peers on the overall quality of his profile. The Prospect Score doesn't tell you the percent likelihood that a player is drafted at X spot or in Y round, it doesn't tell you the likelihood that a player "succeeds" (however success might be defined) or posts Z amount of RB2 or better seasons. Instead, the Prospect Score is something like a Madden rating: it simply te