The Vitruvian Prospect

 The Running Backs Don't Matter theory and the discourse surrounding it are very interesting to me, first of all because I love running backs. Their task -- to take the ball from here to as close as you can get to over there while eleven other dudes try to stop you -- is beautiful in its simplicity and in the variety of ways in which it can be attempted. Barry Sanders ran around defenders, Earl Campbell ran through them, Chris Johnson simply ran past them, while others have tried everything in between.  The second reason I'm fascinated by #RBsDM is because I like to understand things. Secondary to the aesthetic and visceral experience of watching the game, the strategy of football is one of the major reasons I love the sport, and given all of football's moving parts, how that strategy can be optimized is interesting as a field of thought. The idea that running backs don't matter is particularly interesting in this area because it flies in the face of conventional wisdom

Yards per Carry+ (or YPC+): Measures to what degree a running back exceeds or falls short of the per-carry output of the collective other running backs on his team. Serves as an overview of team-relative rushing performance. As with following team-relative efficiency metrics, allows for cross-situational comparisons between running back performance on a per-carry basis in the same way that market share stats do for production. For running backs drafted since 2007, the average is 0.54. Chunk Rate+ (or CR+): Measures how often a running back gains at least 10 yards on his carries, minus the rate at which the collective other running backs on his team gain at least 10 yards on their carries. Indicates how successful a running back has been in navigating the first levels of the defense and reaching the secondary, relative to the offensive environment he operates in. For running backs drafted since 2007, the average is 1.07%.  Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):  Measures how often a runnin

This prospecting season, I've done more work on Isaiah Spiller than I have on any other single player, and I have probably dedicated as much thought to Spiller as I have to the rest of the running back class combined. It's both exciting and unsettling that my process has led to me a position that is near opposite of the conventional wisdom that has Spiller as a top-3 (and often top-1) running back in this class, and I've attempted to have conviction in my own process while also exercising openness and intellectual humility when considering arguments to the contrary of my evaluation. To this point, I've written two entire articles over at breakoutfinder.com  just on Spiller, and I need not monopolize those airwaves with my continued beating of this dead horse. However, I've kept my eyes and ears open for pro-Spiller arguments because I want to explore the possibility that I'm wrong, and I want to publish my definitive take on the issue with all of those arguments

In 1952, in his first season as a professional football player, Hall of Fame defensive back Dick "Night Train" Lane burst onto the scene as one of the most ferocious tacklers in NFL history while also setting a still-standing record for single-season interceptions with 14. Lane's record is made even more impressive by the fact that he caught those 14 picks in just a 12-game season, averaging 1.17 interceptions per contest in a year that saw him become one of only four men ever (or since 1940, as far back as pro-football-reference.com 's yearly defensive leaderboards are available) to win the league interception crown while averaging over one pick per game (with Lane's '52 per game rate the highest among all seasonal interception leaders since 1940).  Since those early days of the NFL, the aerial game has steadily increased its presence in professional football. In that 1952 season, Night Train's Los Angeles Rams defense faced 360 pass attempts from opposi

2020 Rookie RB Rankings Most of my recent work has been done over at breakoutfinder.com , where I've been doing analysis on rookie running back prospects as well as delving into more devy stuff. I've been asked by several people on Twitter for my pre-draft rookie rankings, and multiple factors contributed to my not wanting to publish those at Breakout Finder; first, the fantasy "market" is oversaturated with rankings content, second, given that I am choosing to release rankings anyway, I decided to do so too late to get them published over there in time before the NFL Draft starts given the content schedule. So, it makes more sense to just throw together an article here on my personal blog. I have published an article on the rushing efficiency numbers of this rookie class that's good for more context here  (my process has changed a bit since, so composite rushing efficiency scores may be slightly different now). Anyway, this will basically be a list of 20