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Welcome to The Vitruvian Prospect

Welcome to The Vitruvian Prospect. Here I use an analytics-based approach to evaluate prospects (specifically RBs) in order to identify those who are most likely to earn high-volume and high-value roles in their NFL offenses, and thus contribute to dynasty fantasy football teams. With a focus on physical measurables and college production,  I generate Similarity Scores in several categories by comparing players as prospects within a database containing every RB drafted into the NFL since 2007 (along with numerous undrafted players who made rosters and some notable pre-2007 backs), in order to better project role and effectiveness for players at the pro level.

Descending from and inspired by Leonardo da Vinci's search for the ideal proportions of the human body, The Vitruvian Prospect stands on the shoulders of giants in its quest to more effectively identify prospects who profile as successful NFL players.
Recent posts

Lamar Jackson: The Once & Future King

Lamar Jackson has proven himself to be a precocious talent as the youngest Heisman Trophy winner in the history of college football, the youngest QB to ever start an NFL playoff game, and a guy who, through 8 games as a starter (including playoffs) last season, performed at a QB1 pace and as the greatest Konami Code threat in the history of fantasy football. He's currently criminally undervalued in drafts, being selected as the QB17 in seasonal leagues and as the QB16 in dynasty startups (according to FantasyPros and DLF, respectively).

Including the playoff game against the Chargers, Lamar Jackson started 8 games as a rookie, running for 610 yards and 4 TDs in those contests. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been only 17 other seasons in which a QB ran for at least 600 yards and 4 TDs. Using just the numbers posted in started games, here are all of those seasons, sorted by fantasy points per game from rushing production alone:

Averaging more fantasy points per game on…

2019 Rookie RB Rankings

Here are my post-draft rankings of 40 rookie RBs, accounting for talent profile as well as draft capital, landing spot, and immediate opportunity, considered in the context of dynasty leagues. The rankings are tiered, with the players listed in order within the tiers. Links to available pre-draft Prospect Profile breakdowns are included:
Tier 1: Day One Three-Down Backs 1. Miles Sanders, Eagles

Sanders has the most complete profile of any back in this class, and he goes with high draft capital to a talented offense led by a good, young QB and a forward-thinking coaching staff. Jordan Howard and the Eagles' history of deploying a committee backfield system do not worry me. Sanders has immediate RB1 potential in fantasy.

2. Josh Jacobs, Raiders

I had Montgomery slotted just ahead of Jacobs in my pre-draft rankings, but the first-round draft capital spent on the Raiders back causes them to swap spots. Oakland has a quality satellite back on the roster in Jalen Richard, but I believe…