Prospect Profile: Mike Weber

MIKE WEBER -- RB, OHIO STATE

Kevin Jairaj-USA Today Sports

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

Former Ohio State Buckeye Mike Weber is on the low end of size for an NFL workhorse, but there is precedent for a player of his build to receive heavy volume on the ground. Tre Mason, Marlon Mack, Devonta Freeman, Dalvin Cook, Knowshon Moreno, Ray Rice, Sony Michel, and Marshawn Lynch are all runners weighing between 205 and 215 pounds and carrying between 3.00 and 3.05 pounds per inch on their frames who've averaged at least 10 carries per game for their careers (Aaron Jones also fits this mold and has averaged 8.9 carries per game). He's not built like a 25-touch per game bellcow, but Weber is physically suited for a starter's share of work in the NFL. 

Athletically, Weber's profile is a bit of a rollercoaster. He shows great strength for a guy his size with 22-rep ability on the bench, a 67th-percentile effort, and displays 80th-percentile speed with his 4.47 40-time. He's strong and he's fast, but his lateral agility leaves much to be desired. Weber performed at a 22nd-percentile level in the agility drills at his pro day, calling into question his ability to cut quickly and evade tacklers at the next level. He didn't participate in the broad jump at the Combine or his pro day, so his 72nd-percentile Power Score (a metric that combines size, build, and upper- and lower-body strength to indicate a player's ability to handle a heavy carry load in the NFL) of 55.2 is more of an implied Score, as it's generated without a Burst Score. The 33.5 inches he jumped in the vertical is just a 37th-percentile mark according to mockdraftable.com, so it's probably fair to say that an actual Power Score for Weber would be a bit lower. Assuming a similarly unimpressive broad jump, a Burst Score in the 37th percentile would have Weber produce a Power Score in the 45th percentile. 

Production Profile

Mike Weber broke out early at Ohio State, reaching age-adjusted rushing yards market share thresholds for success (based on players with at least one RB2-level fantasy season on their resumé) in his freshman season, but he failed to do so again during the rest of his time on campus:

Tool from @theDude_Z with data courtesy of @pahowdy

That productive 2016 season was the only year in which Weber rushed for 1,000 yards and reached the 15.0% Dominator Rating threshold, posting a 17.6%. It was also the only year in which Weber did not share a backfield with the highly-touted JK Dobbins, as Weber had the Ohio State backfield to himself in the transitional year between the respective reigns of Ezekiel Elliott and Dobbins. Failing to beat out a player like Dobbins for touches is not a crime, and Weber was a highly-ranked recruit himself, so the context behind his relative lack of production in a program stocked with elite talent is important. It does matter, though, and we can't give Weber credit for something he did not do, and he was never responsible for even a 25th-percentile share of Buckeye offensive production. 

Weber's contributions as a receiver indicate that, while he might not boast elite athleticism or a strong history of production, he has the skillset to handle work on all three downs in the NFL. His best seasonal target share number is the 7.4% he garnered in 2016, a 51st-percentile mark, but adjusting for overall offensive involvement means he produced Satellite Scores in at least the 79th percentile in two of his three college seasons. With 54 total receptions during his time at Ohio State and a Satellite Score that rivals those of Elijah McGuire, Giovani Bernard, Joe Mixon, and TJ Yeldon, Weber profiles as a quality pass-catching option out of the backfield in the NFL.

note: target data from 2016 is not available (as far as I know -- I'd love to see it if it is), so target share is estimated using 2016 reception total and 2017-18 catch rates

Rushing Efficiency

With 64th-percentile career marks in both True YPC (which limits long runs to a maximum of 10 yards) and Loss Rate, Mike Weber was good at picking up consistent yards throughout his time in college, though his team-adjusted efficiency numbers show more volatility to his year-to-year performance. While Weber posted a Chunk Rate Over Team (measuring a player's rate of 10+ yard runs over his team's rate of 10+ yard runs) in 2018 that ranks second only to Darrell Henderson in this class, last season was the first in which Weber outperformed his teammates in Chunk Rate, with his 2017 CROT an abysmal -4.52%.

It's worth wondering whether Weber's strong raw efficiency numbers are due to his creating yards on his own merits or rather due to taking advantage of a talent-rich environment that dominated opponents (Ohio State lost five games in Weber's three years and was never worse than 13th in the country in offensive points per game). Weber did rip off breakaway runs (20+ yards) at a rate equal to or better than his teammates in every season of his career, but long speed alone isn't enough to be a quality NFL rusher. According to Pro Football Focus, Weber never recorded a season in which even 60% of his rushing yards came after contact, and his Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt rate just cracks the class' top 25. Marginal measured tackle-breaking ability coupled with bottom-of-the-barrel agility does not inspire confidence in Weber's potential for evading professional defenders. He's a decent home run hitter, but I don't know that Weber has the elusiveness or power necessary to earn a role as a primary ballcarrier in the NFL.

Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Most of Mike Weber's closest Production and overall comps are JAG-y NFL runners: 

While successful professional backs make appearances throughout his Physical and Athletic matches lists, it's telling that Weber's closest overall comps by far are the 86.3% and 87.0% matches to Daniel Lasco and Bryce Brown, respectively, neither of whom ever did much of consequence in the league.

Weber is a close Athletic match to good players like Derrick Henry, Marshawn Lynch, and Dalvin Cook, so it's possible that someone with his physical talent profile can be a productive and high-volume NFL runner. All three of those guys were substantially better college players than was Weber though, and all of them at major football programs. You can't ignore Weber's subpar production when physically similar players like Dalvin Cook are producing at an 87th-percentile level on talented Florida State teams.

Weber's best avenue for finding NFL success is likely through his versatility. His size and athleticism are just fine and his pure rushing ability is questionable, so his receiving chops will be his ticket to a role in a backfield. I think there's a chance Weber can become what the Marlon Mack doubters thought Mack would be: a smallish, big-play committee runner and pseudo satellite back. He's something like a poor man's Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones. 

Overall, I don't think Mike Weber is great enough in any one area to carve out a solid role as anything more than a committee back in the NFL. He's not big enough to be a traditional inside pounder, he's not special enough as a runner to warrant a large share of a team's carries, and while he is a quality pass-catcher, he doesn't have the great agility and elusiveness in the open field that you'd want out of a guy that you're relying on to make plays in the flats and the screen game. He's a popular pick in the dynasty community as an underrated RB in this class, but I think he's properly rated as a likely JAG-level fantasy producer in the pros. He's outside my top 10 backs for 2019 and I'll likely look elsewhere when I reach Mike Weber territory in rookie drafts. 

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