Prospect Profile: Darwin Thompson

DARWIN THOMPSON -- RB, UTAH STATE

Troy Babbitt-USA Today Sports

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

Darwin Thompson out of Utah State is not a big guy. At just 5'8 and weighing less than 200 pounds, the 2.91 pounds per inch he carries on his frame means it's unlikely he ever receives a large workload on the ground in the NFL. Of the 71 players in our database who've averaged at least 10 carries per game for their professional careers, only Christian McCaffrey, Jeff Wilson, Kevin Smith, Jahvid Best, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Phillip Lindsay, and Chris Johnson have been sub-2.95 pounds per inch players, and of that group, only Best, Lindsay, Charles, and Johnson weigh less than 200 pounds. These guys show that it is possible for a small back to get high-volume carries, but they're obviously a small percentage of the heavy-workload rusher population. The Darwin Thompson body type isn't one that typically gets offensive coordinators excited about handing the ball off 25 times a game. 

Fortunately, the Darwin Thompson athletic profile is one that gets OCs going. It's all greens on his measurables chart, as the Combine snub and former JUCO transfer posted at least 66th-percentile numbers across the board at his pro day, with a 28-rep performance on the bench and a 91st-percentile Burst Score of 129.2 as the highlights. Those two marks are important, as they combine to propel the diminutive Darwin to a 54.1 Power Score that ranks in the 67th percentile. Power Score is the best indicator I've found of professional workload outside of draft capital, and Thompson's Score puts him right in the range of players like Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, CJ Anderson, Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, and Alvin Kamara. He'll have to earn heavy touches in the NFL, but if a sub-200 pound back in this class can handle a lot of them, it's Thompson. 

Production Profile

Darwin Thompson was responsible for 39% of Utah State's total rushing yards during his only season against FBS competition in 2018, missing age-adjusted rushing yards market share thresholds for success (based on RBs with at least one RB2-level season on their resumé). 

It's hard to get excited about a guy who was unable to produce even an average Dominator Rating against Mountain West-level talent during his one season of FBS football. Despite the impressive-at-first-glance 1,044 yards and 14 TDs that Thompson racked up on the ground, his volume stats made up just a 22.4% share of the total Aggie offensive output, a figure in just the 40th percentile (playerprofiler.com has him at 24.7%, a 49th-percentile mark). 

Another concerning element of Thompson's production profile is his contributions as a receiver. As with his rushing numbers, the 23 receptions he hauled in in 2018 is a quality total on its face. Adjusting for total offensive involvement though, produces a 48th-percentile Satellite Score of 29.0. The database average is 32.8, so Thompson isn't far off, but a player of his size likely needs to be a quality contributor in the passing game to earn significant playing time. That's still certainly possible for him -- players like Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Dion Lewis all entered the league with similarly sub-average Satellite Scores and proved to be good passing-game weapons. Betting on Thompson to be the level of receiver that Forte or Charles were is bad process with no statistical justification, but it's not unlikely that he's an average or slightly above-average pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Rushing Efficiency

Darwin Thompson was an upper-percentile runner according to various efficiency metrics during his time at Utah State. He ripped off chunk (10+ yards) and breakaway (20+) yard runs at a higher rate than his college teammates, with a Chunk Rate Over Team of 4.54% that ranks 4th in the class (and 17th out of 77 RBs I've charted since 2010). He's also impressive when not going for big gains, with a True YPC (which limits long runs to a maximum of 10 yards) average of 4.21. His rate of runs that lost yards is also decently impressive for a player of his size, as his 9.20% is in the bottom third of sub-210 pound backs that I've charted since 2010. 

According to Pro Football Focus, Thompson was a very good tackle-breaker in college. His Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt rate trails only David Montgomery and Devin Singletary in this class, and over 70% of his total rushing yards came after contact. Sub-standard size and production are legitimate knocks against Thompson, but high-quality efficiency and tackle-breaking ability backed up by near-elite athleticism add a lot of legitimacy to the possibility that he could succeed with a large workload in the NFL. 

Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Darwin Thompson's slight build and below-average college production profile mean his most likely outcome as a pro is becoming a Kendall Hunter or Evan Royster-level JAG, but there are intriguing comps sprinkled throughout his group of closest matches: 

Thompson's 95.7% Athletic match and 83.9% overall match to Nick Chubb is my favorite prospect-to-player comp I've encountered so far this draft season. In every way other than size, they really are strikingly similar prospects:

It's a fun thought experiment to imagine what the 5'8, 198-pound Nick Chubb would look like on an NFL field, and Thompson could prove to be that player. The fact remains, though, that the players who fill the role that Thompson most closely projects to fill in the league (the guys on his 3-Down Profile list) have together averaged just 6.1 carries per game and had targets make up just 15% of their total opportunities throughout their careers (the average is 23.2%). Darwin Thompson doesn't easily profile as a high-volume rusher or high-quality receiver in the NFL. His athleticism could make him an exception to that rule, but he's not a substantially more capable player than Kendall Hunter, his closest match in the Physical, 3-Down Profile, and overall Most Similar comparisons: 

Overall, I like the idea of a Darwin Thompson-sized player doing Nick Chubb things on an NFL field more than I believe that scenario is a legitimate possibility. Thompson possesses the same limitations  as do backs in this class like Justice Hill, Kerrith Whyte, Myles Gaskin, and Devin Singletary. All of these are smaller players with questionable receiving chops, and that combination is not good for carving out a role in the NFL. I do think Thompson has positive elements to his profile that each of those players do not. Unlike Hill and Singletary, Thompson was an efficient runner in college. Unlike Whyte, Thompson seized a starting role and posted quality counting stats. Unlike Gaskin and Singletary, Thompson boasts a full arsenal of upper-percentile athletic traits. For those reasons, I like Thompson more than all of these 2019 runners. I rank him just ahead of the Benny Snell, Nico Evans species of unathletic and one-dimensional grinders in this class and just behind other smaller guys like Patrick Laird, James Williams, and Travis Homer who offer substantial receiving chops and profile as quality NFL satellite backs. The hope is that Thompson escapes backfield purgatory by proving to be either a good enough receiver or a capable and durable enough rusher to earn a significant role in a pro offense. As of now though, I can't put him in my top-15 RBs.

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