Prospect Profile: Alexander Mattison

ALEXANDER MATTISON -- RB, BOISE STATE

Photo uncredited, via saintswire.usatoday.com 

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

Alexander Mattison comes into the NFL as the newest member of a lineage of workhorse-sized former Boise State Bronco runners to turn pro over the last decade. At least an 80.9% Physical match to each of Jeremy McNichols, Jay Ajayi, and Doug Martin, Mattison is a big, compactly built RB well suited for heavy volume in today's NFL. Of the 70 players in our database who've averaged at least 10 carries per game for their careers, half of them weigh over 220 pounds and 36 of them carry at least 3.10 pounds per inch on their frames. Despite each making up just 37% of RBs in the database (220+ pound backs and those carrying 3.10+ pounds per inch, respectively), RBs with the Alexander Mattison body type represent more than half of all high-volume rushers. He is what a bellcow back looks like. 

Mattison is not an elite athlete, but he is strong and explosive and without major weaknesses. The 4.67 time he posted in the 40 yard dash at the Combine is not impressive, and the breakaway run will likely not be a big element of Mattison's game at the NFL level. He did run an adjusted 4.60 at his pro day, which would bring his size-adjusted Speed Score just above the 50th-percentile mark and mean that his speed is comparable to that of players like Chris Carson, Kareem Hunt, Alex Collins, CJ Anderson, and Carlos Hyde. While boasting just near-average agility, Mattison had strong performances in the jumps and on the bench at the Combine, producing a 78th-percentile Power Score (the best indicator I've found of rushing workload in the NFL) of 57.8. Even without adjusting his 40 time down to his pro day mark, Mattison is at least a 90% Athletic match to solid NFL contributors like Shonn Greene and TJ Yeldon. 

Production Profile

Mattison stepped into the starting RB role at Boise State in 2017 following the departure of Jeremy McNichols and immediately began producing above age-adjusted success thresholds (based on players with at least one RB2-quality season on their resumé) as a 19-year old sophomore:

Tool from @theDude_Z with data courtesy of @pahowdy

While Mattison was a strong producer from an early age, his total dominance of the Boise State offensive attack was not extraordinary. Once he became the starter, Mattison posted Dominator Ratings of 24.5% and 29.0%, marks in the 48th and 64th percentiles, respectively (according to playerprofiler.com). Fellow former Broncos McNichols, Ajayi, and Martin posted Dominator Ratings of 41.4%, 41.3%, and 24.3%, respectively, under similar coaching regimes in college. While Martin outperformed his collegiate resumé with multiple 1400-yard seasons as a pro, great college production hasn't translated to NFL success for McNichols, so I don't think any significant conclusions can be drawn here in the case of Mattison. Simply, he was a good player in college.

Mattison's involvement as a receiver at Boise State is a good indicator of his being able to handle a three-down role in the NFL. His workload-adjusted receiving production generated at least a 23.0 Satellite Score in all three of his seasons, and it maxed out with the 57th-percentile 32.7 Score he posted during his sophomore year. The Scores in the low-mid 20s that he posted in 2016 and 2018 are not particularly impressive (his final season Score of 25.5 is a 35th-percentile mark), but they do indicate at least functional ability in the passing game. Tevin Coleman, Lamar Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, Justin Forsett, James Conner, and Frank Gore are all player who entered the league with Satellite Scores below the 26.0 mark and have contributed well in the passing game. Mattison's strong sophomore year Satellite Score and the volume reception totals of 28 and 27 that he posted in his two seasons as a starter suggest that he also will be a quality receiving contributor in an NFL offense. He likely won't ever be the best pass-catching RB on his team, but he won't be a guy that necessarily concedes snaps on third downs and obvious passing situations.

note: target data from 2016 is not available (as far as I know -- I'd love to see it if it is), so target share is estimated using 2016 reception total and 2017-18 catch rates

Rushing Efficiency

Mattison's rushing efficiency numbers are mostly just fine, if uninspiring. He doesn't break off many big runs (with a 20+ yard run rate 2.03% lower than the rest of Boise State ballcarriers), and isn't especially efficient when long runs are removed from the equation (his True YPC -- which caps long runs to a maximum of 10 yards -- is just below the class average). He did rip off chunk runs (10+ yards) at a higher rate than his teammates, and considering his raw YPC of 4.69 exceeds the 4.20 team average, perhaps Mattison was making the most of tough going in the running game. 

Mattison did do a good job of breaking tackles in college. According to Pro Football Focus, over 60% of his total rushing yards in 2018 came after contact, and Mattison compares favorably to runners like  Miles Sanders, Devine Ozigbo, Mike Weber, Elijah Holyfield, and Justice Hill in PFF's Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt metric. I don't think Mattison will ever be a guy who rips off huge runs or creates a ton of extra yards for himself in the NFL, but he'll be a tough inside runner with the ability to sidestep defensive ends and run through the first tackler.

Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Alexander Mattison didn't quite produce in college like a slam dunk RB prospect, but he profiles as a similar player to several successful pro runners: 

Mattison's Path to Success comps list is one of the most impressive of any 2019 RB I've evaluated. He joins David Montgomery, Devine Ozigbo, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, Trayveon Williams, Alex Barnes, and Benny Snell as the only 2019 runners I've found with an 85% or greater overall match to at least one successful NFL player (guys who've posted one or more RB2-quality fantasy seasons), and the weakest comp on his Path to Success list, the 83.1% match to Chris Carson, is a stronger match than any of Josh Jacobs' top-5 successful comps. While many of Mattison's closest Production comps are pro flameouts, he checks too many boxes to be a non-factor in the NFL. He's big, he's a quality pass-catcher, and he's decently athletic (especially if he's closer to a 4.60 runner than a 4.67 one). Checking even the first two of those three boxes means a player has the potential to have an NFL role. 

Overall, I didn't expect to like Mattison's profile as much as I do. He's as good as any RB in this class outside the top few guys, and I think he projects well as a strong, all-purpose committee back in the NFL. At his floor, he'll be a guy like Robert Turbin or TJ Yeldon that is a quality real-life player while not producing much for fantasy, and at his ceiling, he's capable of filling a Latavius Murray-type role as a big, versatile banger in a two-headed backfield. He's Alex Collins with hands and explosiveness, and is a similarly capable player to me as Darrell Henderson that, pending landing spot, I'd be comfortable taking anywhere in the top 5-10 RBs in this class. Scoop up the elite WRs at the top of your rookie draft and take Mattison late as a great arbitrage play on a guy like David Montgomery.

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