Prospect Profile: James Williams

JAMES WILLIAMS -- RB, WASHINGTON STATE

Tyler Tjomsland / The Spokesman Review

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

Little Red Riding Hood is pretty stupid -- after all, she mistook a wolf for her own grandmother. But even Little Red knows a prototype satellite back when she sees one, and James Williams fits that mold perfectly. At 5'9.5 and just under 200 pounds, nobody is mistaking the former Washington State Cougar for a three-down workhorse. Carrying just 2.83 pounds per inch on his frame means it's pretty unlikely that Williams is headed for a big ground-based workload in the NFL. RBs under the 2.85 pounds per inch threshold average only 76 carries per 16 games, significantly lower than the all-RB average of 117, and that same group of players have targets make up an average of 32.7% of their total opportunities, 9.5% higher than the average for all RBs since 2007. Such a different role for the NFL pass-catching back sometimes makes it feel like they play a different position completely, and in my analysis of this rookie RB class I admittedly sometimes gloss right over the James Williamses and Patrick Lairds on my way to weighing the profiles of the more traditional runners. It's like trying to rank Dr. Strangelove amongst movies like Pulp Fiction, Scarface, The Godfather, and Goodfellas. But comedies are art too, and as Theo Riddick, Tarik Cohen, James White, Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and others have shown us recently, some of the most valuable producers at the RB position are the satellite backs. James Williams clearly profiles as more of a receiving specialist than a high-volume rushing attempt guy, but as Strangelove is a better movie than all of the aforementioned crime films, in many ways that's preferable. 

Athletically, Williams is simply good enough. At 4.58 in the 40, he possesses below-average speed, especially for his size, but he is decently explosive and agile. He's not going to be a Tarik Cohen or Corey Grant who can catch the ball in the flat and blaze by people in the open field, but he is able to accelerate quickly and use an array of nifty cuts and jukes to maneuver past defenders and create extra yards. Williams' 36.9 implied Power Score (typically generated using body type, Burst Score, and bench press), a metric that shows a player's likelihood to receive as well as ability to handle a large rushing workload, is a 6th-percentile figure, but it's right in line with successful pass-catching backs like Darren Sproles, Dion Lewis, Nyheim Hines, and Theo Riddick. The man they call Boobie is not the titillating SPARQ-freak that someone like Matt Breida is, but he also doesn't have any glaring athletic weaknesses. He possesses a well-rounded athletic profile that will serve him just fine on an NFL field. 

Production Profile 

Despite over 40% of his career opportunities in college coming through the air, James Williams still managed a fairly robust rushing production profile when you adjust for how often Mike Leach's offense actually ran the ball. Williams met age-adjusted market share rushing yards thresholds for success during his final two seasons at Washington State, and he just missed the threshold during his redshirt freshman season in 2016 (thresholds are based on RBs with at least one RB2-level PPR season):

Tool from @theDude_Z with data courtesy of @pahowdy 

Of course the best part of Williams' production profile is the work he put in as a pass-catcher. Even during seasons when his Dominator Rating dipped below the 6th-percentile, his lowest target share number was the 43rd-percentile 8.1% mark he posted in 2016. In the next two years, he posted target shares in the 63rd and 68th-percentile, respectively, despite overall involvement in the offense that saw him post a high-mark Dominator Rating in just the 28th-percentile. Such heavy involvement in the passing game even when he wasn't a feature weapon in the offense results in one of the more complete receiving profiles I can imagine a player producing: his lowest Satellite Score is the 55.9 he posted during his final season, a mark better than 94% of Scores in the database. James Williams was a ridiculously productive pass-catcher at WSU, even hitting volume reception thresholds for wide receiver success during his final two years. I have no question that he will enter the NFL already as one of the best satellite backs in the league.

note: target data from 2016 is not available (as far as I know -- I'd love to see it if it is), so target share is estimated using 2016 reception total and 2017-18 catch rates

Rushing Efficiency

James Williams showed average-to-below average efficiency as a runner during his time in Pullman. While just below the class mean in Chunk Rate Over Team and Breakaway Rate Over Team (metrics that measure a player's rate of 10+ yard runs and 20+ yard runs, respectively, compared to the rest of their team's rate of such runs), and also a slightly below-average performer in True YPC (which discounts long runs to a maximum of 10 yards), Williams was one of the 4 best in the class in rate of carries that lost yards. 

These efficiency numbers make pretty good sense when considered next to Williams' tape. He's not a homerun hitter or an I-formation grinder. Much of his rushing damage is done from the shotgun on delayed handoffs, and then his bread and butter is of course catching the ball in the flat or in the middle of the field and making something happen after the catch. In space is where he operated in college and it's where he should operate in the NFL. When he's there, he shows great ability to make defenders miss, with a rate of Missed Tackles forced per Attempt that ranks near the top of the class (according to Pro Football Focus). 

Similarity Scores and Overall Outlook

The closest comps for James Williams are about what you would expect for a pure satellite back of his caliber: 

While three-down backs like Arian Foster and Alvin Kamara make cameos on Williams' list of closest Production matches, most of the players here are receiving specialists. The two who make the most sense are the guys who show up at the top of the 3-Down Profile comp list as well as the top of the overall Most Similar list: Nyheim Hines and Theo Riddick. Each of them have turned in fantastic seasons during their careers mostly buoyed by their contributions as receivers; Hines has had targets make up 48.8% of his career opportunities so far, while Riddick's targets have made up 49.7% of his total opportunities. Hines boasts elite top-end speed while Riddick succeeds despite sub-athleticism, making Williams sort of a fusion between the two.

Dion Lewis and is really the only player on the Path to Success comp list who feels like a naturally good match to Williams (Giovani Bernard is close, but he's built better for early-down work than Williams is) , and Lewis is also Williams' top Physical match. Conspicuously absent from any of these lists is the player I've seen Williams comped to the most around the fantasy community: James White. I'm not sure what it is about the New England Patriot (other than his name) that makes him such a better comp to Williams than a number of other satellite backs are, but in my database in particular it's White's ridiculously high Satellite Score that keeps him from being more than a 76.6% overall match or a 70.6% 3-Down Profile match to Williams. Using Williams' sophomore season production though (a year in which he produced a 98th-percentile Satellite Score of 91.1), makes White the best Production comp in the database at 95.0%, as well as creates an 84.4% overall match that would make White the 3rd-closest overall comp to Williams as well as his #1 Path to Success match. 

Given the career arcs of close comps like Kerwynn Williams and Isaiah Pead, there exists the possibility that James Williams never amounts to much in the NFL. Given the robustness of his receiving profile though, I think it's very likely that he's immediately the best pass-catching back on whatever team that drafts him, and if that's the case, I'm comfortable projecting a Nyheim Hines-level impact made by Williams in his rookie season. He slots in as a useful day-one third-down option on a majority of teams in the league, and I believe he has 80-reception and week-to-week RB2-level upside in his range of outcomes, as early as his rookie year. He's the Dr. Strangelove of this class as an elite satellite back among a smorgasbord of two-down pounders. I see him as a top-10 back in the class and a very safe option in the middle rounds of a dynasty rookie draft. Learn to stop worrying about the Benny Snells and Ryquell Armsteads and love James Williams. 

Thanks so much for reading! If you enjoy the content, please consider subscribing at the top of the page, and find me on Twitter @noahmoreparties.