Prospect Profile: David Montgomery

DAVID MONTGOMERY -- RB, IOWA STATE

David Dermer/USA TODAY Sports

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

While there aren't a lot of legitimate RB talents in this draft who fit the Todd Gurley/David Johnson/Ezekiel Elliott body-type mold of 6', 225 lbs., David Montgomery is about as close at it gets, a slightly stockier archetype but a guy who is still built to handle a full, workhorse share of his team's backfield touches. Like Alfred Morris, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Frank Gore, Montgomery is a strong-looking, compactly-built runner whose build should allow him to slot right in as the main ballcarrier in an NFL offense. Of the 23 RBs drafted in the last 10 years who've averaged at least 15 carries per game for their careers, 19 of them weighed at least 215 pounds, and all but five of them carried at least 3.00 pounds per inch on their frames -- at 5'10, 222, Montgomery is built like an NFL workhorse. 

Athletically, Montgomery is fairly average. His 4.63 40-yard dash time and his 43rd-percentile Burst Score are just adequate marks for a professional back, while his 15-rep effort on the bench was disappointing, as its an area you'd expect such a strong, sturdy runner to show out well in. Montgomery did validate the strong lateral quickness he displays on tape with a pro day performance in the agility drills good enough to produce a 11.13 Agility Score that surpasses the 80th percentile. His size, build, Burst Score, and bench press numbers combine to produce a 56th-percentile Power Score of 51.8, which, as the best indicator outside of draft capital that I've found of NFL workload, suggests that he's capable of handling a starter's share of carries at the next level. All I want out of a RB prospect is one quality athletic trait that indicates that their collegiate success might translate to the professional game, and Montgomery delivered that. He's not a special physical talent, but I don't think his athleticism will hinder his performance in the NFL. 

Production Profile

Upon breaking out as a starter in his sophomore year, David Montgomery posted two straight seasons in which he met age-adjusted market share rushing yards thresholds for successful NFL RBs (using players with at least one top-24 PPR season drafted since 2000):

Tool from @theDude_Z with data courtesy of @pahowdy 

He enters the draft with the 7th-highest final-season Dominator Rating in the class (and the 4th-highest among players from Power Five conferences) and two straight 1000-yard seasons on his resumé. Where Montgomery really separates himself from the other productive runners in this draft is through his production as a receiver, posting at least 20 receptions or an upper-percentile Satellite Score in every season of his college career. Even the 24th-percentile 22.3 Satellite Score he posted in 2018 is not a historical indicator of a player who can't contribute in the passing game at the NFL level; it aligns his projected receiving profile with players like Lamar Miller, Ezekiell Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, and Kerryon Johnson. The context behind that is the previous two years of good workload-adjusted receiving production and the 67th-percentile 37.3 Satellite Score he posted in a productive sophomore season, evidence enough to suggest that David Montgomery will be a strong contributor as a receiver out of the backfield in the NFL. He is a complete back. 

*note: target data from 2016  is not available (as far as I know -- I'd love to see it if it is) and is therefore estimated using 2016 reception total and 2017-18 catch rates

Rushing Efficiency

David Montgomery was one of the more efficient college runners of the 2019 backs. While his True YPC (discounting long runs to a maximum of 10 yards) was slightly below the average at 3.84, he was 4th lowest among players with sizable workloads (at least 28.2% Dominator Ratings, the 10-year average for drafted RBs) in carries that lost yards. In addition to gaining positive yards consistently, he was also good at extending runs into longer gains. His Chunk Rate Over Team (measuring the rate of 10+ yard runs over a team's rate of 10+ yard runs) was 5th in the class at 3.60%, and his Breakaway Rate Over Team (using 20+ yard runs) was almost double the class average of 0.83% at 1.59%. 

data from cfbstats.com and expandtheboxscore.com

While I don't think he'll be a huge big-play runner against faster NFL defenders, Montgomery's college rushing efficiency shows that he has the instincts at the line of scrimmage and the vision downfield to find holes and then make the most of his opportunities when he reaches the second level. He's not going to be a dancer behind the line or a guy who simply hits the secondary and runs straight until he's caught from behind. According to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery was excellent at creating yards on his own in college. They rate him #1 in the class in Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt, and mark him down as having almost three-quarters of his total 2018 rushing yardage output come after contact. It's in this area that Montgomery separates himself from many of the other backs in this class, as his strong showing in the agility drills at his pro day serves to legitimize that measured ability to evade tacklers and create his own yardage.

Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Because of an average athletic profile and a subdued final season Satellite Score, many of Montgomery's most similar matches look pretty JAG-y:

What these similarity scores don't take into account is the context behind David Montgomery's production profile, so he's a much stronger match to some two-down role players here than his actual on-field receiving capabilities would indicate. That's important to keep in mind when evaluating him. Using Montgomery's sophomore year production for comps, where he produced a 37.3 Satellite Score, results in all-purpose backs like Marshawn Lynch, Kareem Hunt, Ahmad Bradshaw, Marlon Mack, and Mark Ingram as 88% or stronger matches in the 3-Down Profile comparison (which takes size, build, power, and receiving ability into account to project a player's NFL role). Montgomery is a more versatile player than his comps list suggests. 

Because of that hidden versatility, I think Montgomery profiles as a much stronger play-style match to a guy like Frank Gore on his Path to Success comparison list (which limits the player pool to runners who've produced at least one RB2-level fantasy season) than he does to the Stevan Ridley, Jordan Howard, and Mike Gillislee types that are littered throughout the rest of his group of comps. Montgomery is not just a two-down pounder, and, like Gore, should be an all-purpose, three-down contributor in the NFL with 50+ reception upside.

Overall, I like Montgomery as a prospect despite a mediocre athletic profile. He offers a meal-ticket athletic trait, and in checking nearly every other box he looks the part of a quality, well-rounded NFL workhorse. I believe the efficiency metrics show that Montgomery is able to succeed as a runner without great long speed or explosiveness, and I know that his box of tools contains more than his 2018 production profile would suggest. His limited athleticism ensures that he'll never be a particularly dynamic back in the NFL, but if a team believes in him enough to hand him the keys to their backfield, David Montgomery has the versatile ability to be a consistent week-to-week fantasy contributor, and I believe he's capable of high-end RB2-quality production. I wouldn't take him over Miles Sanders or any of this year's elite WRs, but he's a definite top-5 back in a deep, flat class. 

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